Philadelphia Flyers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Jamie DrysdaleGoals1
- Nick SeelerAssists1
- Jamie DrysdalePoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Matvei Michkov Goal Backhand1–0
- P23:48Jamie Drysdale Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (14), Nick Seeler (12)1–1
- P19:58Mark Scheifele Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (29), Kyle Connor (43)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:58Mark Scheifele Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (29), Kyle Connor (43)PHI 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 65% → 79% +13WPG 65% → 79%+13 pts
- P23:48Jamie Drysdale Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (14), Nick Seeler (12)PHI 1 – 1 WPG · PHI 21% → 37% +16PHI 21% → 37%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 67%
- ML PHI +190 / WPG -225
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- WPG: Elo 74.0%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- WPG -201
- PHI +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.3 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +14 | PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +182 Elo | WPG 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 71.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 71.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 50.6%10th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 26th of 3211–20 | Road vs home | 23–84th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–30 | 33–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–11 | 23–21 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 31–29 | 29–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–0 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.