Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Connor ZaryGoals2
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists2
- Connor ZaryPoints2
Flyers- Noah CatesGoals1
- Bobby BrinkAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:59Matt Coronato Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (24), MacKenzie Weegar (28)6–3
- P310:43Sean Couturier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (26), Andrei Kuzmenko (14)5–3
- P216:33MacKenzie Weegar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (17), Jonathan Huberdeau (24)5–2
- P117:29Yegor Sharangovich Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (17), Morgan Frost (16)4–2
- P117:11Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P19:54Noah Cates Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (13), Bobby Brink (21)3–1
- P19:32Connor Zary Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (7), Kevin Rooney (2)3–0
- P18:13Nazem Kadri Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Hanley (4)2–0
- P17:40Connor Zary Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Pachal (5), Jonathan Huberdeau (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:40Connor Zary Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Pachal (5), Jonathan Huberdeau (23)CGY 1 – 0 PHI · CGY 43% → 59% +15CGY 43% → 59%+15 pts
- P18:13Nazem Kadri Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Hanley (4)CGY 2 – 0 PHI · CGY 59% → 73% +14CGY 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P19:54Noah Cates Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (13), Bobby Brink (21)CGY 3 – 1 PHI · PHI 15% → 26% +11PHI 15% → 26%+11 pts
- P117:11Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 3 – 2 PHI · PHI 24% → 39% +15PHI 24% → 39%+15 pts
- P117:29Yegor Sharangovich Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (17), Morgan Frost (16)CGY 4 – 2 PHI · CGY 61% → 76% +15CGY 61% → 76%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML CGY +125 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -133
- CGY +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +7 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +34 Elo | PHI 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 50.5%11th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.6%32nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3211–18 | Road vs home | 15–1416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–30 | 31–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders | 22–38 | 31–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.