Seattle Kraken at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Adam LarssonGoals1
- Jaden SchwartzAssists1
- Adam LarssonPoints1
Predators- Michael McCarronGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists2
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:14Mikey Eyssimont Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Josh Mahura (8)3–5
- P317:15Luke Evangelista Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (20), Spencer Stastney (1)2–5
- P313:31Jared McCann Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (20), Andre Burakovsky (17)2–4
- P219:51Michael McCarron Goal (4) Wrap-around, assists: Ozzy Wiesblatt (1), Justin Barron (5)1–4
- P25:48Filip Forsberg Goal (24) Deflected, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (28), Marc Del Gaizo (5)1–3
- P23:33Brady Skjei Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (19), Ryan O'Reilly (24)1–2
- P17:15Filip Forsberg Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (14)1–1
- P10:32Adam Larsson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Vince Dunn (18), Kaapo Kakko (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:32Adam Larsson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Vince Dunn (18), Kaapo Kakko (26)SEA 1 – 0 NSH · SEA 47% → 61% +14SEA 47% → 61%+14 pts
- P17:15Filip Forsberg Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (14)SEA 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 38% → 53% +15NSH 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P23:33Brady Skjei Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (19), Ryan O'Reilly (24)SEA 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 53% → 70% +18NSH 53% → 70%+18 pts
- P25:48Filip Forsberg Goal (24) Deflected, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (28), Marc Del Gaizo (5)SEA 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 71% → 85% +14NSH 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P219:51Michael McCarron Goal (4) Wrap-around, assists: Ozzy Wiesblatt (1), Justin Barron (5)SEA 1 – 4 NSH · NSH 90% → 97% +7NSH 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 53%
- ML SEA +105 / NSH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- NSH: Elo 55.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NSH -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.7 – 2.8 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −4 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +40 Elo | NSH 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 50.3%13th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 21st of 3212–17 | Road vs home | 15–1516th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–31 | 24–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 9–25 |
| Underdog | 23–18 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31 | 26–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–2 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.