Nashville Predators at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals2
- Steven StamkosAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints3
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:52Mark Jankowski Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (13)6–3
- P39:31Ryan O'Reilly Goal (16) Batted, assists: Steven Stamkos (18), Luke Evangelista (13)5–3
- P38:28Jonathan Marchessault Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (6), Filip Forsberg (33)4–3
- P35:35Morgan Geekie Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (26), David Pastrnak (45)3–3
- P26:25Steven Stamkos Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (23)3–2
- P25:08Jordan Oesterle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (3), David Pastrnak (44)2–2
- P111:33Ryan O'Reilly Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (12), Steven Stamkos (17)2–1
- P15:32Tommy Novak Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P14:25Charlie Coyle Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:08Jordan Oesterle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (3), David Pastrnak (44)NSH 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 36% → 55% +19BOS 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P26:25Steven Stamkos Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (23)NSH 3 – 2 BOS · NSH 45% → 64% +19NSH 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P35:35Morgan Geekie Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (26), David Pastrnak (45)NSH 3 – 3 BOS · BOS 25% → 53% +28BOS 25% → 53%+28 pts
- P38:28Jonathan Marchessault Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (6), Filip Forsberg (33)NSH 4 – 3 BOS · NSH 47% → 78% +30NSH 47% → 78%+30 pts
- P39:31Ryan O'Reilly Goal (16) Batted, assists: Steven Stamkos (18), Luke Evangelista (13)NSH 5 – 3 BOS · NSH 79% → 95% +16NSH 79% → 95%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML NSH +120 / BOS -140
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -128
- NSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.6 – 2.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +2 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +74 Elo | BOS 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.122nd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 49.1%22nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326–24 | Road vs home | 18–1515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–37 | 29–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–25 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders | 25–35 | 30–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.