Montreal Canadiens at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals1
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists2
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints3
Canucks- Filip HronekGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists1
- Filip HronekPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:43Mike Matheson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P311:08Elias Pettersson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (20), Conor Garland (23)3–2
- P34:05Filip Hronek Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (17)3–1
- P28:59Cole Caufield Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (47), Juraj Slafkovský (26)3–0
- P18:34Juraj Slafkovský Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P11:06Nick Suzuki Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Cole Caufield (26), Juraj Slafkovský (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:06Nick Suzuki Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Cole Caufield (26), Juraj Slafkovský (25)MTL 1 – 0 VAN · MTL 44% → 58% +15MTL 44% → 58%+15 pts
- P18:34Juraj Slafkovský Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 2 – 0 VAN · MTL 60% → 74% +14MTL 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P28:59Cole Caufield Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (47), Juraj Slafkovský (26)MTL 3 – 0 VAN · MTL 82% → 92% +10MTL 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P34:05Filip Hronek Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (17)MTL 3 – 1 VAN · VAN 2% → 9% +7VAN 2% → 9%+7 pts
- P311:08Elias Pettersson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (20), Conor Garland (23)MTL 3 – 2 VAN · VAN 3% → 19% +15VAN 3% → 19%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 56%
- ML MTL +120 / VAN -140
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- VAN: Elo 59.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- VAN -128
- MTL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.6 – 2.9 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | 0 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +67 Elo | VAN 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.019th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 48.6%27th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.6%25th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 16th of 3214–17 | Road vs home | 13–1829th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–28 | 27–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 34–21 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 33–30 | 28–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–2 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.