Minnesota Wild at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marco RossiAssists1
- Marco RossiPoints1
Canucks- Teddy BluegerGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Filip HronekPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:06Teddy Blueger Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Pius Suter (13)1–3
- P316:15Kiefer Sherwood Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (19)1–2
- P37:12Brock Faber Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (31), Matt Boldy (33)1–1
- P116:14Elias Pettersson Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (18), Brock Boeser (20)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:14Elias Pettersson Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (18), Brock Boeser (20)MIN 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 54% → 70% +16VAN 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P37:12Brock Faber Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (31), Matt Boldy (33)MIN 1 – 1 VAN · MIN 20% → 48% +28MIN 20% → 48%+28 pts
- P316:15Kiefer Sherwood Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (19)MIN 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 51% → 93% +42VAN 51% → 93%+42 pts
- P319:06Teddy Blueger Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Pius Suter (13)MIN 1 – 3 VAN · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 54%
- ML MIN +110 / VAN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- VAN: Elo 52.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.6 – 2.9 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −1 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +18 Elo | VAN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.020th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 48.7%25th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.4%26th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3222–12 | Road vs home | 12–1729th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–31 | 26–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 7–21 |
| Underdog | 16–13 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 30–32 | 28–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 VAN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.