Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Sam ColangeloGoals1
- Cutter GauthierAssists1
- Sam ColangeloPoints1
Canucks- Teddy BluegerGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Filip HronekPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:27Brian Dumoulin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (9), Brett Leason (11)2–3
- P218:51Carson Soucy Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (9), Kiefer Sherwood (11)1–3
- P210:33Teddy Blueger Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (17), Elias Pettersson (2)1–2
- P21:05Jake DeBrusk Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (19), Filip Hronek (16)1–1
- P113:21Sam Colangelo Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cutter Gauthier (17), Mason McTavish (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:21Sam Colangelo Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cutter Gauthier (17), Mason McTavish (18)ANA 1 – 0 VAN · ANA 37% → 53% +16ANA 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P21:05Jake DeBrusk Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (19), Filip Hronek (16)ANA 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 44% → 62% +18VAN 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P210:33Teddy Blueger Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (17), Elias Pettersson (2)ANA 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 61% → 79% +18VAN 61% → 79%+18 pts
- P218:51Carson Soucy Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (9), Kiefer Sherwood (11)ANA 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 80% → 93% +13VAN 80% → 93%+13 pts
- P313:27Brian Dumoulin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (9), Brett Leason (11)ANA 2 – 3 VAN · ANA <1% → 11% +10ANA <1% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 65%
- ML ANA +175 / VAN -210
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- VAN: Elo 65.9%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- VAN -186
- ANA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.3 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −2 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +115 Elo | VAN 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 68.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 48.4%26th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%26th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 19th of 3213–18 | Road vs home | 11–1729th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–19 | 26–34 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 38–17 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 22–38 | 28–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–4 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.