Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Canucks- Derek ForbortGoals1
- Nils HoglanderAssists1
- Derek ForbortPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:52Mikko Rantanen Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (17)4–1
- P38:26Jason Robertson Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (41)3–1
- P219:34Mikael Granlund Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (16), Matt Duchene (40)2–1
- P211:35Derek Forbort Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (22), Nils Hoglander (10)1–1
- P25:17Thomas Harley Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (19), Ilya Lyubushkin (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:17Thomas Harley Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (19), Ilya Lyubushkin (12)DAL 1 – 0 VAN · DAL 51% → 69% +18DAL 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P211:35Derek Forbort Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (22), Nils Hoglander (10)DAL 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 29% → 49% +20VAN 29% → 49%+20 pts
- P219:34Mikael Granlund Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (16), Matt Duchene (40)DAL 2 – 1 VAN · DAL 51% → 74% +23DAL 51% → 74%+23 pts
- P38:26Jason Robertson Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (41)DAL 3 – 1 VAN · DAL 80% → 95% +15DAL 80% → 95%+15 pts
- P318:52Mikko Rantanen Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (17)DAL 4 – 1 VAN · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 51%
- ML DAL -115 / VAN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 50.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -104
- VAN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 2.7 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +1 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +1 Elo | DAL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.019th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 48.5%26th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.6%23rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 6th of 3217–13 | Road vs home | 13–1728th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–34 | 27–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–30 | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 29–34 | 28–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–1 VAN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.