New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists2
- Timo MeierPoints2
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:55Thomas Harley Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (37), Roope Hintz (25)3–4
- P315:52Brett Pesce Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (24), Jesper Bratt (53)3–3
- P312:18Nico Hischier Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (23), Jesper Bratt (52)2–3
- P219:46Roope Hintz Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (35), Thomas Harley (26)1–3
- P27:09Timo Meier Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (23), Luke Hughes (22)1–2
- P26:30Ilya Lyubushkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (36), Roope Hintz (24)0–2
- P11:39Wyatt Johnston Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:39Wyatt Johnston Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: noneNJ 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 59% → 72% +14DAL 59% → 72%+14 pts
- P27:09Timo Meier Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (23), Luke Hughes (22)NJ 1 – 2 DAL · NJ 12% → 26% +13NJ 12% → 26%+13 pts
- P219:46Roope Hintz Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (35), Thomas Harley (26)NJ 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 78% → 92% +14DAL 78% → 92%+14 pts
- P315:52Brett Pesce Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (24), Jesper Bratt (53)NJ 3 – 3 DAL · NJ 7% → 48% +40NJ 7% → 48%+40 pts
- P319:55Thomas Harley Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (37), Roope Hintz (25)NJ 3 – 4 DAL · DAL 50% → 100% +50DAL 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 59%
- ML NJ +135 / DAL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 59.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- DAL -143
- NJ +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +20 | −8 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.49 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +69 Elo | DAL 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 51.8%8th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 9th of 3217–15 | Road vs home | 22–72nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–37 | 28–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 24–28 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 21–41 | 27–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.