Los Angeles Kings at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals1
- Phillip DanaultAssists1
- Trevor MoorePoints1
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P36:19Sam Steel Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none2–6
- P34:06Logan Stankoven Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Roope Hintz (20), Jason Robertson (34)2–5
- P213:51Trevor Moore Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: none2–4
- P24:57Wyatt Johnston Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Roope Hintz (19), Thomas Harley (23)1–4
- P114:11Logan Stankoven Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (16), Sam Steel (14)1–3
- P111:59Matt Duchene Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Roope Hintz (18), Jason Robertson (33)1–2
- P16:44Warren Foegele Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (26), Mikey Anderson (10)1–1
- P14:21Jason Robertson Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (22), Roope Hintz (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:21Jason Robertson Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (22), Roope Hintz (17)LA 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 54% → 69% +14DAL 54% → 69%+14 pts
- P16:44Warren Foegele Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (26), Mikey Anderson (10)LA 1 – 1 DAL · LA 31% → 46% +15LA 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P111:59Matt Duchene Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Roope Hintz (18), Jason Robertson (33)LA 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 54% → 69% +15DAL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P114:11Logan Stankoven Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (16), Sam Steel (14)LA 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 70% → 82% +13DAL 70% → 82%+13 pts
- P24:57Wyatt Johnston Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Roope Hintz (19), Thomas Harley (23)LA 1 – 4 DAL · DAL 85% → 94% +8DAL 85% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML LA +110 / DAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 61.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- LA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.6 – 2.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +79 Elo | DAL 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 91.0%5th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3212–19 | Road vs home | 20–74th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–29 | 26–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–21 | 22–28 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 23–33 | 25–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–3 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.