New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils
Golden KnightsScoring summary
- P39:10Noah Hanifin Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (53)0–2
- P31:27Mark Stone Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (21), Jack Eichel (52)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P31:27Mark Stone Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (21), Jack Eichel (52)NJ 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 56% → 79% +23VGK 56% → 79%+23 pts
- P39:10Noah Hanifin Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (53)NJ 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 83% → 97% +13VGK 83% → 97%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 60%
- ML NJ +140 / VGK -165
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- VGK: Elo 59.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- VGK -149
- NJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.5 – 3.0 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +21 | +6 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.53 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +65 Elo | VGK 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 53.9%3rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%19th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 8th of 3217–14 | Road vs home | 21–95th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–36 | 33–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 23–24 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–40 | 28–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–2 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.