St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Nathan WalkerGoals1
- Oskar SundqvistAssists1
- Nathan WalkerPoints1
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals3
- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P311:11Wyatt Johnston Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (23), Thomas Harley (25)3–6
- P39:14Wyatt Johnston Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (22), Matt Duchene (37)3–5
- P28:02Nathan Walker Goal (7) Batted, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (9), Robert Thomas (34)3–4
- P21:06Roope Hintz Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (35), Logan Stankoven (20)2–4
- P119:58Wyatt Johnston Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (21), Thomas Harley (24)2–3
- P118:34Dylan Holloway Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (26), Jordan Kyrou (25)2–2
- P113:28Matt Duchene Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (16), Cody Ceci (14)1–2
- P13:22Zack Bolduc Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (10), Philip Broberg (15)1–1
- P11:56Mason Marchment Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (11), Mikael Granlund (37)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:56Mason Marchment Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (11), Mikael Granlund (37)STL 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 65% → 78% +12DAL 65% → 78%+12 pts
- P13:22Zack Bolduc Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (10), Philip Broberg (15)STL 1 – 1 DAL · STL 22% → 35% +13STL 22% → 35%+13 pts
- P113:28Matt Duchene Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (16), Cody Ceci (14)STL 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 64% → 78% +14DAL 64% → 78%+14 pts
- P118:34Dylan Holloway Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (26), Jordan Kyrou (25)STL 2 – 2 DAL · STL 22% → 37% +15STL 22% → 37%+15 pts
- P119:58Wyatt Johnston Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (21), Thomas Harley (24)STL 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 63% → 78% +15DAL 63% → 78%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 66%
- ML STL +180 / DAL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 69.6%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -191
- STL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.3 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +1 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +144 Elo | DAL 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 69.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 52.1%7th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 14th of 3214–15 | Road vs home | 21–72nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–26 | 27–32 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 23–28 |
| Underdog | 29–16 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 27–34 | 26–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–4 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.