Los Angeles Kings at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals1
- Dylan HollowayAssists1
- Dylan HollowayPoints2
Scoring summary
- P31:34Dylan Holloway Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (25), Ryan Suter (11)1–4
- P29:27Zack Bolduc Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (7)1–3
- P118:07Pavel Buchnevich Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (33), Jake Neighbours (15)1–2
- P19:37Colton Parayko Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (24), Dylan Holloway (26)1–1
- P13:43Kevin Fiala Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (4), Anze Kopitar (34)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:43Kevin Fiala Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (4), Anze Kopitar (34)LA 1 – 0 STL · LA 50% → 65% +15LA 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P19:37Colton Parayko Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (24), Dylan Holloway (26)LA 1 – 1 STL · STL 35% → 50% +15STL 35% → 50%+15 pts
- P118:07Pavel Buchnevich Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (33), Jake Neighbours (15)LA 1 – 2 STL · STL 50% → 67% +17STL 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P29:27Zack Bolduc Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (7)LA 1 – 3 STL · STL 70% → 85% +15STL 70% → 85%+15 pts
- P31:34Dylan Holloway Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (25), Ryan Suter (11)LA 1 – 4 STL · STL 91% → 98% +7STL 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML LA -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- STL: Elo 54.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- LA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 2.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +2 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +34 Elo | STL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.018th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 48.4%24th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%16th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 24th of 3212–20 | Road vs home | 14–1726th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–30 | 34–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–21 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 29–16 |
| Overs–unders | 24–33 | 27–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–2 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.