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Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Victory+

Away

Stars

41-20-2

4–5

at

Home

Oilers

37-22-4

DAL 50%EDM 50%

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Rogers Place · ESPN+, Victory+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored DAL favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P39:18Mathew Dumba Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (17), Mikael Granlund (38)4–5
  • P35:17Jamie Benn Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (18), Cody Ceci (15)3–5
  • P35:06Mikko Rantanen Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (39), Thomas Harley (27)2–5
  • P217:40Connor Brown Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: none1–5
  • P25:20Connor McDavid Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (23), Zach Hyman (15)1–4
  • P117:42Viktor Arvidsson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (39), Leon Draisaitl (49)1–3
  • P112:26Zach Hyman Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Jake Walman (27)1–2
  • P16:12Zach Hyman Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (57), Darnell Nurse (19)1–1
  • P15:48Wyatt Johnston Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (38), Mikko Rantanen (44)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P15:48Wyatt Johnston Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (38), Mikko Rantanen (44)DAL 1 – 0 EDM · DAL 50% → 65% +15
  2. P16:12Zach Hyman Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (57), Darnell Nurse (19)DAL 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 35% → 50% +15
  3. P112:26Zach Hyman Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Jake Walman (27)DAL 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 50% → 66% +16
  4. P117:42Viktor Arvidsson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (39), Leon Draisaitl (49)DAL 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 67% → 81% +14
  5. P39:18Mathew Dumba Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (17), Mikael Granlund (38)DAL 4 – 5 EDM · DAL 4% → 19% +15

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 50%

Toss-upHit
DAL 50%EDM 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
EDM 50%
ML DAL -110 / EDM -110
Pre-line forecast
EDM 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 50%
Ratings vs. market
+0.2 pts
EDM: Elo 50.2%, market 50.0%
Fair odds
EDM -100
DAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 3.3 – 3.3 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALEDMWhy
Team rating15781550Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2−4DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +1 EloEDM 50.2%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 57.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 56.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 50.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatEDM
4th of 323.4Goals scored3.29th of 32
3rd of 322.6Goals allowed2.913th of 32
4th of 32+0.9Margin+0.310th of 32
8th of 3251.6%Shot share53.9%3rd of 32
3rd of 3291.1%Save percentage89.7%21st of 32
3rd of 327–3Last 104–618th of 32
4th of 3217–12Road vs home19–1313th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALEDM
Puck line28–3422–40
Last 104–62–8
Favorite24–3016–38
Underdog4–46–2
Overs–unders28–3428–34
Overs–unders, last 108–26–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 5–5 EDM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.