Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals2
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:17Jason Robertson Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Roope Hintz (27), Matt Duchene (38)2–3
- P39:00Jason Robertson Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (26), Wyatt Johnston (36)2–2
- P24:06Wyatt Johnston Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (6), Jamie Benn (24)2–1
- P22:29Mikael Backlund Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P12:13Joel Farabee Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:13Joel Farabee Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (18)CGY 1 – 0 DAL · CGY 31% → 46% +14CGY 31% → 46%+14 pts
- P22:29Mikael Backlund Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 2 – 0 DAL · CGY 53% → 70% +17CGY 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P24:06Wyatt Johnston Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (6), Jamie Benn (24)CGY 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 29% → 46% +18DAL 29% → 46%+18 pts
- P39:00Jason Robertson Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (26), Wyatt Johnston (36)CGY 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 26% → 58% +32DAL 26% → 58%+32 pts
- OT4:17Jason Robertson Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Roope Hintz (27), Matt Duchene (38)CGY 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 52% → >99% +48DAL 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 69%
- ML CGY +210 / DAL -250
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 70.6%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -221
- CGY +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.7 – 3.8 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +1 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +152 Elo | DAL 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.94th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 51.7%8th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3212–18 | Road vs home | 23–71st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–30 | 28–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 24–29 |
| Underdog | 22–18 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 23–38 | 28–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–2 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.