Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors CGY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Joel FarabeePoints1
Scoring summary
- P216:21Joel Farabee Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (13), MacKenzie Weegar (29)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:21Joel Farabee Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (13), MacKenzie Weegar (29)MTL 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 53% → 75% +21CGY 53% → 75%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 55%
- ML MTL +115 / CGY -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- CGY: Elo 55.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -124
- MTL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.6 – 2.9 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +41 Elo | CGY 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.2% | Shot share | 49.8%17th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 16th of 3214–16 | Road vs home | 17–1414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–28 | 32–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 33–21 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 33–29 | 23–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 0–3 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.