Anaheim Ducks at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Trevor ZegrasAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Utah HC- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Dylan GuentherAssists1
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:03Dylan Guenther Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (32), Clayton Keller (51)2–3
- P33:22Mason McTavish Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (13), Jackson LaCombe (24)2–2
- P215:53Alex Killorn Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (16), Cutter Gauthier (20)1–2
- P214:31Alexander Kerfoot Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (24), Barrett Hayton (21)0–2
- P111:03Jack McBain Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Ian Cole (13), Josh Doan (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:03Jack McBain Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Ian Cole (13), Josh Doan (10)ANA 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 70% → 83% +12UTAH 70% → 83%+12 pts
- P214:31Alexander Kerfoot Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (24), Barrett Hayton (21)ANA 0 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 83% → 93% +11UTAH 83% → 93%+11 pts
- P215:53Alex Killorn Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (16), Cutter Gauthier (20)ANA 1 – 2 UTAH · ANA 6% → 17% +11ANA 6% → 17%+11 pts
- P33:22Mason McTavish Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (13), Jackson LaCombe (24)ANA 2 – 2 UTAH · ANA 16% → 38% +22ANA 16% → 38%+22 pts
- P37:03Dylan Guenther Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (32), Clayton Keller (51)ANA 2 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 61% → 86% +25UTAH 61% → 86%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 72%
- ML ANA +250 / UTAH -300
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- UTAH: Elo 67.3%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -263
- ANA +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.6 – 3.9 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +2 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +125 Elo | UTAH 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 71.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 31st of 3246.2% | Shot share | 50.3%13th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 21st of 3213–19 | Road vs home | 12–2031st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–20 | 29–35 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 41–18 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 24–40 | 28–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–0 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.