Washington Capitals at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals3
- Alex OvechkinAssists3
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints3
Ducks- Drew HellesonGoals1
- Drew HellesonAssists1
- Frank VatranoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:43Aliaksei Protas Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (20), John Carlson (39)7–4
- P318:24Anthony Beauvillier Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Brandon Duhaime (10), Rasmus Sandin (21)6–4
- P313:25Nic Dowd Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (25), Brandon Duhaime (9)5–4
- P36:18Frank Vatrano Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (27), Pavel Mintyukov (10)4–4
- P34:57Aliaksei Protas Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (40), Connor McMichael (28)4–3
- P34:26Pavel Mintyukov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (19), Drew Helleson (6)3–3
- P25:19Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (19), Jakob Chychrun (24)3–2
- P118:14Aliaksei Protas Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (19), Pierre-Luc Dubois (39)2–2
- P15:20Drew Helleson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (12), Leo Carlsson (15)1–2
- P14:51Jacob Trouba Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (31), Frank Vatrano (20)1–1
- P12:07Dylan Strome Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Tom Wilson (24), Alex Ovechkin (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:14Aliaksei Protas Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (19), Pierre-Luc Dubois (39)WSH 2 – 2 ANA · WSH 44% → 61% +17WSH 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P34:26Pavel Mintyukov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (19), Drew Helleson (6)WSH 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 19% → 43% +24ANA 19% → 43%+24 pts
- P34:57Aliaksei Protas Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (40), Connor McMichael (28)WSH 4 – 3 ANA · WSH 57% → 82% +25WSH 57% → 82%+25 pts
- P36:18Frank Vatrano Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (27), Pavel Mintyukov (10)WSH 4 – 4 ANA · ANA 18% → 43% +26ANA 18% → 43%+26 pts
- P313:25Nic Dowd Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (25), Brandon Duhaime (9)WSH 5 – 4 ANA · WSH 55% → 89% +34WSH 55% → 89%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 64%
- ML WSH -195 / ANA +165
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.9%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- WSH -175
- ANA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 2.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +6 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +70 Elo | WSH 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 46.3%30th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 1st of 3221–9 | Road vs home | 15–1623rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–25 | 44–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 17–19 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 22–6 | 41–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–32 | 23–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–0 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.