New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Tony DeAngeloGoals1
- Adam BoqvistAssists1
- Tony DeAngeloPoints1
Ducks- Sam ColangeloGoals2
- Mason McTavishAssists1
- Sam ColangeloPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:10Anthony DeAngelo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (20), Adam Boqvist (7)1–4
- P38:18Sam Colangelo Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (10)0–4
- P30:43Mason McTavish Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (14)0–3
- P214:56Drew Helleson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (9), Trevor Zegras (11)0–2
- P117:52Sam Colangelo Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (18), Mason McTavish (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:52Sam Colangelo Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (18), Mason McTavish (20)NYI 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 51% → 68% +17ANA 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P214:56Drew Helleson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (9), Trevor Zegras (11)NYI 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 72% → 87% +15ANA 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P30:43Mason McTavish Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (14)NYI 0 – 3 ANA · ANA 90% → 97% +7ANA 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P38:18Sam Colangelo Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (10)NYI 0 – 4 ANA · ANA >99% → >99% +1ANA >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P315:10Anthony DeAngelo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (20), Adam Boqvist (7)NYI 1 – 4 ANA · NYI <1% → <1% +0NYI <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 51%
- ML NYI -105 / ANA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- ANA: Elo 51.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ANA -104
- NYI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.2 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +22 | +5 | NYI: Marcus Hogberg: team allows 0.55 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +8 Elo | ANA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 46.3%30th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 18th of 3214–18 | Road vs home | 14–1625th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–31 | 43–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 9–21 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 40–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–30 | 23–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–1 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.