St. Louis Blues at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Brayden SchennGoals2
- Cam FowlerAssists2
- Brayden SchennPoints2
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists2
- Frank VatranoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:17Alex Killorn Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Troy Terry (30), Frank Vatrano (19)4–3
- P318:13Brayden Schenn Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (21)4–2
- P316:58Frank Vatrano Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (29)3–2
- P35:21Zack Bolduc Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (18), Alexey Toropchenko (10)3–1
- P210:49Brayden Schenn Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (27), Jordan Kyrou (26)2–1
- P114:48Sam Colangelo Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Jackson LaCombe (23), Mason McTavish (19)1–1
- P12:37Alexey Toropchenko Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (1), Cam Fowler (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:37Alexey Toropchenko Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (1), Cam Fowler (17)STL 1 – 0 ANA · STL 60% → 74% +13STL 60% → 74%+13 pts
- P114:48Sam Colangelo Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Jackson LaCombe (23), Mason McTavish (19)STL 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 26% → 41% +15ANA 26% → 41%+15 pts
- P210:49Brayden Schenn Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (27), Jordan Kyrou (26)STL 2 – 1 ANA · STL 57% → 76% +19STL 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P35:21Zack Bolduc Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (18), Alexey Toropchenko (10)STL 3 – 1 ANA · STL 81% → 95% +14STL 81% → 95%+14 pts
- P316:58Frank Vatrano Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (29)STL 3 – 2 ANA · ANA <1% → 5% +5ANA <1% → 5%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- STL 61%
- ML STL -170 / ANA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- STL: Elo 51.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- STL -154
- ANA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 2.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +6 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +13 Elo | STL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3249.0% | Shot share | 46.2%30th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 13th of 3215–16 | Road vs home | 14–1523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–27 | 42–19 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 30–17 | 39–17 |
| Overs–unders | 28–35 | 22–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–0 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.