St. Louis Blues at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists1
- Robert ThomasPoints1
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals1
- Vladislav GavrikovAssists1
- Trevor MoorePoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Robert Thomas Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Kevin Fiala Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Jake Neighbours Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P219:13Robert Thomas Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (30), Cam Fowler (16)2–2
- P210:14Trevor Moore Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Mikey Anderson (11), Warren Foegele (16)1–2
- P119:22Quinton Byfield Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (16), Vladislav Gavrikov (18)1–1
- P118:50Jake Neighbours Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Colton Parayko (20)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:50Jake Neighbours Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Colton Parayko (20)STL 1 – 0 LA · STL 43% → 60% +17STL 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P119:22Quinton Byfield Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (16), Vladislav Gavrikov (18)STL 1 – 1 LA · LA 40% → 57% +18LA 40% → 57%+18 pts
- P210:14Trevor Moore Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Mikey Anderson (11), Warren Foegele (16)STL 1 – 2 LA · LA 56% → 75% +19LA 56% → 75%+19 pts
- P219:13Robert Thomas Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (30), Cam Fowler (16)STL 2 – 2 LA · STL 23% → 45% +22STL 23% → 45%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 59%
- ML STL +135 / LA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- LA: Elo 56.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- LA -143
- STL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.5 – 3.0 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −6 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +43 Elo | LA 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 67.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 16th of 3214–16 | Road vs home | 19–62nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–27 | 27–32 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 11–22 |
| Underdog | 29–17 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders | 28–34 | 25–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–1 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.