Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Alex TurcotteAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints1
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:30Ryan Donato Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (11), Teuvo Teravainen (34)1–5
- P31:20Andreas Athanasiou Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Dach (4)1–4
- P213:30Ethan Del Mastro Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (11), Lukas Reichel (13)1–3
- P20:46Ilya Mikheyev Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (33), Ryan Donato (23)1–2
- P111:39Anze Kopitar Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (14), Adrian Kempe (24)1–1
- P110:57Alec Martinez Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:57Alec Martinez Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (16)LA 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 32% → 48% +15CHI 32% → 48%+15 pts
- P111:39Anze Kopitar Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (14), Adrian Kempe (24)LA 1 – 1 CHI · LA 52% → 68% +16LA 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P20:46Ilya Mikheyev Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (33), Ryan Donato (23)LA 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 34% → 52% +18CHI 34% → 52%+18 pts
- P213:30Ethan Del Mastro Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (11), Lukas Reichel (13)LA 1 – 3 CHI · CHI 58% → 78% +19CHI 58% → 78%+19 pts
- P31:20Andreas Athanasiou Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Dach (4)LA 1 – 4 CHI · CHI 85% → 95% +11CHI 85% → 95%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- LA 69%
- ML LA -260 / CHI +215
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.2 pts
- LA: Elo 57.3%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- LA -227
- CHI +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.3 – 2.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +26 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.65 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +51 Elo | LA 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 43.9%32nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%21st of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 25th of 3212–21 | Road vs home | 11–1831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–31 | 32–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–21 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 31–25 |
| Overs–unders | 24–34 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–1 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.