New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Jean-Gabriel PageauGoals1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists2
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints3
Sharks- Nikolai KovalenkoGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:33Will Smith Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (28), Alexander Wennberg (22)4–2
- P33:51Adam Boqvist Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (21), Anthony DeAngelo (6)4–1
- P31:13Anders Lee Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (20), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (20)3–1
- P26:27Nikolai Kovalenko Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Shakir Mukhamadullin (6), Macklin Celebrini (27)2–1
- P119:21Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (21), Adam Pelech (16)2–0
- P110:43Anthony Duclair Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (19), Noah Dobson (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:43Anthony Duclair Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (19), Noah Dobson (20)NYI 1 – 0 SJ · NYI 59% → 74% +15NYI 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P119:21Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (21), Adam Pelech (16)NYI 2 – 0 SJ · NYI 74% → 86% +12NYI 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P26:27Nikolai Kovalenko Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Shakir Mukhamadullin (6), Macklin Celebrini (27)NYI 2 – 1 SJ · SJ 12% → 25% +13SJ 12% → 25%+13 pts
- P31:13Anders Lee Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (20), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (20)NYI 3 – 1 SJ · NYI 79% → 93% +14NYI 79% → 93%+14 pts
- P33:51Adam Boqvist Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (21), Anthony DeAngelo (6)NYI 4 – 1 SJ · NYI 94% → 99% +5NYI 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 60%
- ML NYI -165 / SJ +140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- NYI: Elo 60.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYI -149
- SJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 2.5 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1376 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −6 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +76 Elo | NYI 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 45.8%31st of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.1%29th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 19th of 3213–18 | Road vs home | 9–2032nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–31 | 39–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–21 | — |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 39–25 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30 | 31–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–1 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.