San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- William EklundPoints2
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists1
- Jonathan DrouinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:24William Eklund Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (19), Alexander Wennberg (21)3–7
- P39:00Cale Makar Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (73), Devon Toews (23)2–7
- P38:10Macklin Celebrini Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Will Smith (20), William Eklund (34)2–6
- P35:21Nathan MacKinnon Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (13), Cale Makar (50)1–6
- P210:54Nathan MacKinnon Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (49), Josh Manson (13)1–5
- P20:40Martin Necas Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (48), Nathan MacKinnon (72)1–4
- P119:57Jonathan Drouin Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (49), Artturi Lehkonen (12)1–3
- P110:08Fabian Zetterlund Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (5)1–2
- P16:43Cale Makar Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (19), Nathan MacKinnon (71)0–2
- P14:19Joel Kiviranta Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (47)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:19Joel Kiviranta Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (47)SJ 0 – 1 COL · COL 76% → 86% +10COL 76% → 86%+10 pts
- P16:43Cale Makar Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (19), Nathan MacKinnon (71)SJ 0 – 2 COL · COL 86% → 93% +7COL 86% → 93%+7 pts
- P110:08Fabian Zetterlund Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (5)SJ 1 – 2 COL · SJ 7% → 14% +7SJ 7% → 14%+7 pts
- P119:57Jonathan Drouin Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (49), Artturi Lehkonen (12)SJ 1 – 3 COL · COL 85% → 93% +8COL 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P20:40Martin Necas Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (48), Nathan MacKinnon (72)SJ 1 – 4 COL · COL 93% → 97% +4COL 93% → 97%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- COL 77%
- ML SJ +320 / COL -425
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- COL: Elo 77.0%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -340
- SJ +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.4 – 4.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1378 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +210 Elo | COL 77.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 77.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 77.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.1 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.7% | Shot share | 52.8%5th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%18th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 30th of 328–26 | Road vs home | 19–1210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–24 | 26–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 39–24 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 30–33 | 31–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–5 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.