San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Alexander WennbergAssists2
- Alexander WennbergPoints2
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Fabian Zetterlund Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Tyler Toffoli Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00William Nylander Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P310:10Tyler Toffoli Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (20), Shakir Mukhamadullin (3)2–2
- P32:23Jack Thompson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (19), William Eklund (32)1–2
- P219:55Matthew Knies Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Auston Matthews (30), John Tavares (28)0–2
- P28:28John Tavares Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (58), William Nylander (27)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:28John Tavares Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (58), William Nylander (27)SJ 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 69% → 84% +15TOR 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P219:55Matthew Knies Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Auston Matthews (30), John Tavares (28)SJ 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 85% → 95% +10TOR 85% → 95%+10 pts
- P32:23Jack Thompson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (19), William Eklund (32)SJ 1 – 2 TOR · SJ 4% → 15% +11SJ 4% → 15%+11 pts
- P310:10Tyler Toffoli Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (20), Shakir Mukhamadullin (3)SJ 2 – 2 TOR · SJ 12% → 39% +27SJ 12% → 39%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 75%
- ML SJ +280 / TOR -360
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 79.6%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- TOR -297
- SJ +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1366 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +17 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.43 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +236 Elo | TOR 79.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 77.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 77.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.6% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.0%5th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 32nd of 326–26 | Road vs home | 20–118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–24 | 30–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 20–26 |
| Underdog | 37–24 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 29–32 | 30–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–2 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.