Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- Matthew KniesAssists1
- Matthew KniesPoints2
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:00William Nylander Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (25), Auston Matthews (29)6–5
- P30:10Rickard Rakell Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (25), Kris Letang (16)5–5
- P219:59Matthew Knies Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–4
- P219:04John Tavares Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (15)4–4
- P215:38Bryan Rust Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Sidney Crosby (46), Erik Karlsson (37)3–4
- P24:08Auston Matthews Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (17), Mitch Marner (57)3–3
- P113:51Sidney Crosby Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (36), Bryan Rust (24)2–3
- P111:29Rickard Rakell Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (29), Sidney Crosby (45)2–2
- P110:27Cody Glass Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (3), Blake Lizotte (5)2–1
- P14:39Conor Timmins Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (8), William Nylander (26)2–0
- P12:15Max Domi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (10), Nicholas Robertson (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:38Bryan Rust Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Sidney Crosby (46), Erik Karlsson (37)TOR 3 – 4 PIT · PIT 41% → 64% +22PIT 41% → 64%+22 pts
- P219:04John Tavares Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (15)TOR 4 – 4 PIT · TOR 34% → 58% +24TOR 34% → 58%+24 pts
- P219:59Matthew Knies Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 5 – 4 PIT · TOR 58% → 80% +22TOR 58% → 80%+22 pts
- P30:10Rickard Rakell Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (25), Kris Letang (16)TOR 5 – 5 PIT · PIT 20% → 42% +22PIT 20% → 42%+22 pts
- OT1:00William Nylander Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (25), Auston Matthews (29)TOR 6 – 5 PIT · TOR 53% → 93% +40TOR 53% → 93%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 63%
- ML TOR -195 / PIT +160
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 62.9%, market 63.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -172
- PIT +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −17 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · PIT: Joel Blomqvist: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +92 Elo | TOR 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 62.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 48.8%23rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%31st of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 4th of 3217–11 | Road vs home | 14–1727th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–29 | 30–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–25 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 29–30 | 33–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.