San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- Shakir MukhamadullinAssists2
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- JJ PeterkaAssists1
- JJ PeterkaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:01Tyler Toffoli Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Walman (26), Timothy Liljegren (6)6–2
- P312:49Will Smith Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (19)5–2
- P37:58Macklin Celebrini Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Shakir Mukhamadullin (5), Will Smith (19)4–2
- P36:55Tage Thompson Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (31), Connor Clifton (9)3–2
- P32:19William Eklund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (18), Shakir Mukhamadullin (4)3–1
- P218:22Nico Sturm Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (4), Klim Kostin (6)2–1
- P25:13JJ Peterka Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (39), Jack Quinn (14)1–1
- P21:01Timothy Liljegren Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (33), Jake Walman (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:13JJ Peterka Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (39), Jack Quinn (14)SJ 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 43% → 62% +19BUF 43% → 62%+19 pts
- P218:22Nico Sturm Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (4), Klim Kostin (6)SJ 2 – 1 BUF · SJ 40% → 64% +24SJ 40% → 64%+24 pts
- P32:19William Eklund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (18), Shakir Mukhamadullin (4)SJ 3 – 1 BUF · SJ 67% → 87% +19SJ 67% → 87%+19 pts
- P36:55Tage Thompson Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (31), Connor Clifton (9)SJ 3 – 2 BUF · BUF 8% → 28% +19BUF 8% → 28%+19 pts
- P37:58Macklin Celebrini Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Shakir Mukhamadullin (5), Will Smith (19)SJ 4 – 2 BUF · SJ 74% → 93% +19SJ 74% → 93%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 66%
- ML SJ +180 / BUF -215
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 69.6%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- BUF -191
- SJ +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.7 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1370 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | BUF and SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | 0 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +144 Elo | BUF 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 68.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.6% | Shot share | 49.2%21st of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.2%29th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 31st of 327–26 | Road vs home | 15–1518th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–24 | 29–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 38–24 | 24–15 |
| Overs–unders | 29–33 | 35–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–3 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.