Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Avalanche- Jack DruryGoals1
- Valeri NichushkinAssists1
- Jack DruryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:52Jack Drury Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (10)1–4
- P318:52Artturi Lehkonen Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P315:51Casey Mittelstadt Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (7), Nathan MacKinnon (70)1–2
- P218:04Rickard Rakell Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Bryan Rust (26), Sidney Crosby (47)1–1
- P26:36Artturi Lehkonen Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (69), Cale Makar (46)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:36Artturi Lehkonen Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (69), Cale Makar (46)PIT 0 – 1 COL · COL 65% → 81% +16COL 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P218:04Rickard Rakell Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Bryan Rust (26), Sidney Crosby (47)PIT 1 – 1 COL · PIT 18% → 38% +20PIT 18% → 38%+20 pts
- P315:51Casey Mittelstadt Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (7), Nathan MacKinnon (70)PIT 1 – 2 COL · COL 55% → 94% +38COL 55% → 94%+38 pts
- P318:52Artturi Lehkonen Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: nonePIT 1 – 3 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:52Jack Drury Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (10)PIT 1 – 4 COL · COL 100% → 100% +0COL 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 70%
- ML PIT +220 / COL -270
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- COL: Elo 67.3%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -234
- PIT +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.7 – 3.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +126 Elo | COL 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 70.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 53.0%5th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%21st of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 28th of 3210–21 | Road vs home | 18–1211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–32 | 25–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 19–30 |
| Underdog | 27–22 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 34–29 | 31–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.