Utah Hockey Club at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Clayton KellerGoals1
- Mikhail SergachevAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:10Connor Bedard Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Ethan Del Mastro (2), Teuvo Teravainen (35)3–4
- P312:16Clayton Keller Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (30), Barrett Hayton (20)3–3
- P35:04John Marino Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (29)2–3
- P214:30Frank Nazar Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none1–3
- P212:50Ilya Mikheyev Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Ryan Donato (24)1–2
- P29:23Wyatt Kaiser Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (34)1–1
- P10:56Nick Schmaltz Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (49)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:23Wyatt Kaiser Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (34)UTAH 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 24% → 42% +18CHI 24% → 42%+18 pts
- P212:50Ilya Mikheyev Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Ryan Donato (24)UTAH 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 43% → 64% +21CHI 43% → 64%+21 pts
- P35:04John Marino Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (29)UTAH 2 – 3 CHI · UTAH 9% → 28% +18UTAH 9% → 28%+18 pts
- P312:16Clayton Keller Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (30), Barrett Hayton (20)UTAH 3 – 3 CHI · UTAH 18% → 54% +36UTAH 18% → 54%+36 pts
- OT3:10Connor Bedard Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Ethan Del Mastro (2), Teuvo Teravainen (35)UTAH 3 – 4 CHI · CHI 48% → 98% +50CHI 48% → 98%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 61%
- ML UTAH -170 / CHI +145
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- UTAH: Elo 50.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -154
- CHI +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.1 – 2.4 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +27 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.67 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH 0 Elo | UTAH 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 43.6%32nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 9th of 3216–15 | Road vs home | 12–1930th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–34 | 34–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–21 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 33–25 |
| Overs–unders | 26–36 | 34–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.