Ottawa Senators at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- David PerronGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Pat MaroonAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:46Tim Stützle Goal (20) Deflected, assists: none4–3
- P31:47Craig Smith Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (12)3–3
- P210:29Josh Norris Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (33), Jake Sanderson (36)3–2
- P114:09David Perron Goal (3) Batted, assists: Drake Batherson (32), Josh Norris (13)2–2
- P112:22Teuvo Teravainen Goal (15) Batted, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (17), Alex Vlasic (22)1–2
- P111:38Ryan Donato Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Landon Slaggert (1)1–1
- P12:25Brady Tkachuk Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Artem Zub (8), Jake Sanderson (35)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:22Teuvo Teravainen Goal (15) Batted, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (17), Alex Vlasic (22)OTT 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 33% → 49% +16CHI 33% → 49%+16 pts
- P114:09David Perron Goal (3) Batted, assists: Drake Batherson (32), Josh Norris (13)OTT 2 – 2 CHI · OTT 51% → 67% +16OTT 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P210:29Josh Norris Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (33), Jake Sanderson (36)OTT 3 – 2 CHI · OTT 64% → 81% +17OTT 64% → 81%+17 pts
- P31:47Craig Smith Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (12)OTT 3 – 3 CHI · CHI 18% → 39% +22CHI 18% → 39%+22 pts
- OT0:46Tim Stützle Goal (20) Deflected, assists: noneOTT 4 – 3 CHI · OTT 55% → 93% +38OTT 55% → 93%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 69%
- ML OTT -250 / CHI +210
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 57.9%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- OTT -221
- CHI +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.3 – 2.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −5 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +55 Elo | OTT 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 62.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 43.6%32nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3213–19 | Road vs home | 12–1829th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–34 | 33–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders | 26–34 | 33–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–1 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.