Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Simon BenoitGoals1
- David KampfAssists1
- Calle JarnkrokPoints1
Utah HC- Michael CarconeGoals1
- Mikhail SergachevAssists1
- Nick SchmaltzPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Mitch Marner Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Clayton Keller Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Auston Matthews Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P212:11Barrett Hayton Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (31), Dylan Guenther (23)3–3
- P29:03Nick Schmaltz Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Olli Määttä (13), Clayton Keller (50)3–2
- P28:14Michael Carcone Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Josh Doan (9), Jack McBain (8)3–1
- P24:48Simon Benoit Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: David Kampf (6), Pontus Holmberg (9)3–0
- P119:38Calle Jarnkrok Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Max Domi (21), Morgan Rielly (26)2–0
- P112:42William Nylander Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (59), Matthew Knies (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:42William Nylander Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (59), Matthew Knies (19)TOR 1 – 0 UTAH · TOR 51% → 67% +16TOR 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P119:38Calle Jarnkrok Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Max Domi (21), Morgan Rielly (26)TOR 2 – 0 UTAH · TOR 68% → 82% +14TOR 68% → 82%+14 pts
- P24:48Simon Benoit Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: David Kampf (6), Pontus Holmberg (9)TOR 3 – 0 UTAH · TOR 83% → 93% +9TOR 83% → 93%+9 pts
- P29:03Nick Schmaltz Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Olli Määttä (13), Clayton Keller (50)TOR 3 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 15% → 30% +15UTAH 15% → 30%+15 pts
- P212:11Barrett Hayton Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (31), Dylan Guenther (23)TOR 3 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 29% → 49% +20UTAH 29% → 49%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML TOR -115 / UTAH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- UTAH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 3.2 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +4 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +11 Elo | UTAH 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.2%14th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 5th of 3218–13 | Road vs home | 12–1931st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–33 | 28–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–27 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 32–31 | 27–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.