Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Tomas HertlAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:27Mitch Marner Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P218:01Auston Matthews Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (29), William Nylander (28)1–5
- P213:33Tanner Pearson Goal (10) Poke, assists: Kaedan Korczak (6), Tomas Hertl (24)0–5
- P20:17Noah Hanifin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (54), Tanner Pearson (11)0–4
- P115:03Jack Eichel Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (22), Pavel Dorofeyev (14)0–3
- P111:18Brett Howden Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (22), Keegan Kolesar (13)0–2
- P14:33Tomas Hertl Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:33Tomas Hertl Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (11)TOR 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 60% → 74% +14VGK 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P111:18Brett Howden Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (22), Keegan Kolesar (13)TOR 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 74% → 85% +11VGK 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P115:03Jack Eichel Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (22), Pavel Dorofeyev (14)TOR 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 86% → 93% +7VGK 86% → 93%+7 pts
- P20:17Noah Hanifin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (54), Tanner Pearson (11)TOR 0 – 4 VGK · VGK 94% → 98% +4VGK 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P213:33Tanner Pearson Goal (10) Poke, assists: Kaedan Korczak (6), Tomas Hertl (24)TOR 0 – 5 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +1VGK >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 61%
- ML TOR +145 / VGK -170
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 57.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -154
- TOR +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.4 – 3.1 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +8 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +49 Elo | VGK 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 53.8%4th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 4th of 3218–11 | Road vs home | 22–95th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–31 | 34–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–27 | 24–24 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 30–31 | 28–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.