Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals2
- Matthew KniesAssists1
- John TavaresPoints2
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals3
- Sam MalinskiAssists2
- Valeri NichushkinPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:07Nathan MacKinnon Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (8)4–7
- P318:06Valeri Nichushkin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (14), Cale Makar (51)4–6
- P315:45Nathan MacKinnon Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (50), Devon Toews (24)4–5
- P311:55Jonathan Drouin Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (8), Ross Colton (7)4–4
- P215:11Joel Kiviranta Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (6), Sam Malinski (7)4–3
- P212:45John Tavares Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (33), William Nylander (30)4–2
- P116:04Mitch Marner Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (11), Auston Matthews (32)3–2
- P112:51John Tavares Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (29)2–2
- P16:08Valeri Nichushkin Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (24), Sam Malinski (6)1–2
- P13:04Mitch Marner Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (18), Auston Matthews (31)1–1
- P10:56Valeri Nichushkin Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Lindgren (18), Josh Manson (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:04Mitch Marner Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (11), Auston Matthews (32)TOR 3 – 2 COL · TOR 42% → 59% +17TOR 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P212:45John Tavares Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (33), William Nylander (30)TOR 4 – 2 COL · TOR 65% → 82% +17TOR 65% → 82%+17 pts
- P215:11Joel Kiviranta Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (6), Sam Malinski (7)TOR 4 – 3 COL · COL 16% → 34% +18COL 16% → 34%+18 pts
- P311:55Jonathan Drouin Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (8), Ross Colton (7)TOR 4 – 4 COL · COL 18% → 53% +35COL 18% → 53%+35 pts
- P315:45Nathan MacKinnon Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (50), Devon Toews (24)TOR 4 – 5 COL · COL 52% → 92% +40COL 52% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 59%
- ML TOR +135 / COL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- COL: Elo 55.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- COL -143
- TOR +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | +3 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +37 Elo | COL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 52.8%5th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3218–12 | Road vs home | 20–129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–32 | 27–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–27 | 21–30 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31 | 32–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.