Pittsburgh Penguins at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Matt GrzelcykAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints1
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Jared SpurgeonAssists1
- Ryan HartmanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:47Sidney Crosby Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Tristan Jarry (1)3–1
- P314:54Ryan Hartman Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (17), Marcus Johansson (18)2–1
- P39:21Sidney Crosby Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (38), Rickard Rakell (25)2–0
- P215:22Evgeni Malkin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (17), Matt Grzelcyk (30)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:22Evgeni Malkin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (17), Matt Grzelcyk (30)PIT 1 – 0 MIN · PIT 47% → 69% +22PIT 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P39:21Sidney Crosby Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (38), Rickard Rakell (25)PIT 2 – 0 MIN · PIT 79% → 95% +16PIT 79% → 95%+16 pts
- P314:54Ryan Hartman Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (17), Marcus Johansson (18)PIT 2 – 1 MIN · MIN <1% → 11% +11MIN <1% → 11%+11 pts
- P318:47Sidney Crosby Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Tristan Jarry (1)PIT 3 – 1 MIN · PIT >99% → >99% +1PIT >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML PIT +115 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −11 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +87 Elo | MIN 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 48.0%28th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 29th of 3210–23 | Road vs home | 14–1417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–34 | 31–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 27–24 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 34–31 | 30–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.