Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins
Golden Knights- Tanner PearsonGoals1
- Tanner PearsonAssists1
- Tanner PearsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P32:54Mark Stone Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (12), Jack Eichel (55)0–4
- P32:00Brandon Saad Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (25), Brayden McNabb (10)0–3
- P24:38Ivan Barbashev Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (37), Nicolas Hague (6)0–2
- P112:58Tanner Pearson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (36), Zach Whitecloud (7)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:58Tanner Pearson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (36), Zach Whitecloud (7)PIT 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 65% → 79% +14VGK 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P24:38Ivan Barbashev Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (37), Nicolas Hague (6)PIT 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 79% → 90% +11VGK 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P32:00Brandon Saad Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (25), Brayden McNabb (10)PIT 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 94% → 99% +4VGK 94% → 99%+4 pts
- P32:54Mark Stone Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (12), Jack Eichel (55)PIT 0 – 4 VGK · VGK 99% → >99% +1VGK 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 67%
- ML PIT +195 / VGK -230
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 66.0%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -206
- PIT +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.7 – 3.8 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −8 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +115 Elo | VGK 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 69.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.35th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 24th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 53.7%4th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 90.0%16th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 28th of 3210–22 | Road vs home | 23–94th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–33 | 35–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 25–24 |
| Underdog | 27–23 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 34–30 | 29–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.