Seattle Kraken at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Shane WrightGoals2
- Adam LarssonAssists2
- Adam LarssonPoints3
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:55Shane Wright Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (16), Andre Burakovsky (20)6–2
- P215:13Shane Wright Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Mikey Eyssimont (6), Brandon Montour (23)5–2
- P212:53Matty Beniers Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (15), Vince Dunn (21)4–2
- P26:21Jared McCann Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (19)3–2
- P25:55Jordan Eberle Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (37), Jamie Oleksiak (10)2–2
- P117:44Adam Larsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (21), Jaden Schwartz (21)1–2
- P117:13Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Alex Vlasic (23), Lukas Reichel (14)0–2
- P13:46Connor Bedard Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (2), Tyler Bertuzzi (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:46Connor Bedard Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (2), Tyler Bertuzzi (18)SEA 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 42% → 57% +15CHI 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P117:13Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Alex Vlasic (23), Lukas Reichel (14)SEA 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 60% → 76% +15CHI 60% → 76%+15 pts
- P117:44Adam Larsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (21), Jaden Schwartz (21)SEA 1 – 2 CHI · SEA 24% → 40% +15SEA 24% → 40%+15 pts
- P25:55Jordan Eberle Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (37), Jamie Oleksiak (10)SEA 2 – 2 CHI · SEA 37% → 56% +19SEA 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P26:21Jared McCann Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (19)SEA 3 – 2 CHI · SEA 56% → 74% +18SEA 56% → 74%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SEA -150 / CHI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -138
- CHI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1397 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +19 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.46 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +14 Elo | SEA 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 43.6%32nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%21st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 21st of 3213–19 | Road vs home | 13–1930th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–34 | 36–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 35–28 |
| Overs–unders | 34–34 | 36–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–2 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.