Chicago Blackhawks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Wyatt KaiserAssists1
- Ilya MikheyevPoints1
Sharks- Collin GrafGoals2
- Will SmithAssists1
- Collin GrafPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:27Tyler Toffoli Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P213:18Ilya Mikheyev Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (26), Teuvo Teravainen (36)2–3
- P210:17Collin Graf Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Will Smith (22), Shakir Mukhamadullin (7)1–3
- P20:10Frank Nazar Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (3), Nick Foligno (15)1–2
- P110:16Collin Graf Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (23), Mario Ferraro (7)0–2
- P13:48Will Smith Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (29), William Eklund (35)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:48Will Smith Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (29), William Eklund (35)CHI 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 52% → 67% +15SJ 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P110:16Collin Graf Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (23), Mario Ferraro (7)CHI 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 67% → 80% +13SJ 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P20:10Frank Nazar Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (3), Nick Foligno (15)CHI 1 – 2 SJ · CHI 17% → 31% +14CHI 17% → 31%+14 pts
- P210:17Collin Graf Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Will Smith (22), Shakir Mukhamadullin (7)CHI 1 – 3 SJ · SJ 71% → 86% +15SJ 71% → 86%+15 pts
- P213:18Ilya Mikheyev Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (26), Teuvo Teravainen (36)CHI 2 – 3 SJ · CHI 13% → 28% +15CHI 13% → 28%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 52%
- ML CHI +100 / SJ -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- SJ: Elo 46.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SJ -109
- CHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.2 – 3.3 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1371 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +22 | −4 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.54 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +24 Elo | CHI 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.4% | Shot share | 46.2%30th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.0%30th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–832nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 327–26 | Road vs home | 9–2232nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–29 | 40–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | — |
| Underdog | 35–26 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 35–30 | 32–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–1 SJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.