Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Connor MurphyAssists1
- Ilya MikheyevPoints1
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals3
- Nick BlankenburgAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:39Steven Stamkos Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (4), Spencer Stastney (2)2–3
- P312:22Ilya Mikheyev Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (25), Connor Murphy (16)2–2
- P212:20Steven Stamkos Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (25)1–2
- P22:36Steven Stamkos Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (29), Nick Blankenburg (6)1–1
- P21:56Alex Vlasic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (35), Colton Dach (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:56Alex Vlasic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (35), Colton Dach (5)CHI 1 – 0 NSH · CHI 35% → 53% +18CHI 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P22:36Steven Stamkos Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (29), Nick Blankenburg (6)CHI 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 47% → 65% +18NSH 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P212:20Steven Stamkos Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (25)CHI 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 63% → 81% +18NSH 63% → 81%+18 pts
- P312:22Ilya Mikheyev Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (25), Connor Murphy (16)CHI 2 – 2 NSH · CHI 12% → 43% +31CHI 12% → 43%+31 pts
- OT2:39Steven Stamkos Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (4), Spencer Stastney (2)CHI 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 54% → 97% +44NSH 54% → 97%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 69%
- ML CHI +210 / NSH -250
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- NSH: Elo 68.1%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- NSH -221
- CHI +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.7 – 3.8 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −4 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +132 Elo | NSH 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 73.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.5% | Shot share | 50.4%12th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%26th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 31st of 327–24 | Road vs home | 16–1516th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–28 | 25–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 10–25 |
| Underdog | 34–25 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 35–28 | 27–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–6 NSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.