Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals1
- Martin NecasPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:06Joel Kiviranta Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P33:27Martin Necas Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (75)0–2
- P30:31Artturi Lehkonen Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (25), Nathan MacKinnon (74)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P30:31Artturi Lehkonen Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (25), Nathan MacKinnon (74)CHI 0 – 1 COL · COL 69% → 87% +18COL 69% → 87%+18 pts
- P33:27Martin Necas Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (75)CHI 0 – 2 COL · COL 88% → 97% +9COL 88% → 97%+9 pts
- P319:06Joel Kiviranta Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 0 – 3 COL · COL >99% → 100% +0COL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
- Market
- COL 81%
- ML CHI +400 / COL -550
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- COL: Elo 71.5%, market 80.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -423
- CHI +423 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.2 – 4.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +25 | +3 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.61 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +160 Elo | COL 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 73.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 73.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 80.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.3% | Shot share | 52.9%5th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 32nd of 327–25 | Road vs home | 21–128th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–28 | 28–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 22–30 |
| Underdog | 35–25 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 35–29 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–3 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.