Nashville Predators at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Kieffer BellowsGoals1
- Fedor SvechkovAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Sharks- Patrick GilesGoals1
- Carl GrundstromAssists1
- Patrick GilesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:32Kieffer Bellows Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (34)3–2
- P33:56Collin Graf Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (21)2–2
- P33:42Patrick Giles Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Carl Grundstrom (6)2–1
- P215:17Steven Stamkos Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (15)2–0
- P28:11Filip Forsberg Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (5), Nick Blankenburg (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:11Filip Forsberg Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (5), Nick Blankenburg (7)NSH 1 – 0 SJ · NSH 57% → 75% +18NSH 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P215:17Steven Stamkos Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (15)NSH 2 – 0 SJ · NSH 77% → 90% +14NSH 77% → 90%+14 pts
- P33:42Patrick Giles Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Carl Grundstrom (6)NSH 2 – 1 SJ · SJ 6% → 20% +14SJ 6% → 20%+14 pts
- P33:56Collin Graf Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (21)NSH 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 20% → 45% +25SJ 20% → 45%+25 pts
- P36:32Kieffer Bellows Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (34)NSH 3 – 2 SJ · NSH 55% → 81% +27NSH 55% → 81%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 60%
- ML NSH -165 / SJ +140
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- NSH: Elo 59.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NSH -149
- SJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.5 – 3.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −5 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +67 Elo | NSH 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 46.1%31st of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.0%30th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 31st of 327–24 | Road vs home | 9–2132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–38 | 39–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | — |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 27–36 | 32–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 5–0 SJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.