Winnipeg Jets at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Dylan SambergGoals1
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists2
- Dylan SambergPoints2
Kraken- Michael EyssimontGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Michael EyssimontPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:47Dylan Samberg Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (28), Vladislav Namestnikov (22)3–2
- P211:42Kyle Connor Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (4)2–2
- P119:43Cole Perfetti Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (11), Vladislav Namestnikov (21)1–2
- P115:23Mikey Eyssimont Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (19), Brandon Montour (22)0–2
- P19:58Jani Nyman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (13), Chandler Stephenson (36)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:58Jani Nyman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (13), Chandler Stephenson (36)WPG 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 43% → 59% +16SEA 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P115:23Mikey Eyssimont Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (19), Brandon Montour (22)WPG 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 60% → 75% +15SEA 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P119:43Cole Perfetti Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (11), Vladislav Namestnikov (21)WPG 1 – 2 SEA · WPG 23% → 39% +16WPG 23% → 39%+16 pts
- P211:42Kyle Connor Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (4)WPG 2 – 2 SEA · WPG 35% → 56% +21WPG 35% → 56%+21 pts
- OT1:47Dylan Samberg Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (28), Vladislav Namestnikov (22)WPG 3 – 2 SEA · WPG 52% → 95% +43WPG 52% → 95%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 58%
- ML WPG -150 / SEA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 59.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -138
- SEA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 2.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +1 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +67 Elo | WPG 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.013th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 48.8%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.4% | Save percentage | 89.6%25th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3221–12 | Road vs home | 16–1927th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–31 | 33–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–24 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders | 31–36 | 34–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 4–1 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.