Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mason MarchmentGoals1
- Cody CeciAssists1
- Mason MarchmentPoints1
Jets- Dylan SambergGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists3
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:11Mason Marchment Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (20), Cody Ceci (18)1–4
- P37:26Morgan Barron Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Tanev (9), Dylan DeMelo (13)0–4
- P26:43Kyle Connor Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (42), Mark Scheifele (40)0–3
- P117:02Kyle Connor Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (39), Gabriel Vilardi (34)0–2
- P18:01Dylan Samberg Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (38), Kyle Connor (49)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:01Dylan Samberg Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (38), Kyle Connor (49)DAL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 54% → 69% +15WPG 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P117:02Kyle Connor Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (39), Gabriel Vilardi (34)DAL 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 70% → 83% +13WPG 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P26:43Kyle Connor Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (42), Mark Scheifele (40)DAL 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 86% → 94% +8WPG 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P37:26Morgan Barron Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Tanev (9), Dylan DeMelo (13)DAL 0 – 4 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +1WPG >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P316:11Mason Marchment Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (20), Cody Ceci (18)DAL 1 – 4 WPG · DAL <1% → <1% +0DAL <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML DAL +110 / WPG -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- WPG: Elo 56.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.6 – 2.9 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1582 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +10 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +47 Elo | WPG 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 50.7%10th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 92.3%1st of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 5th of 3218–13 | Road vs home | 24–94th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–34 | 35–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–30 | 25–24 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 29–35 | 31–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–2 WPG in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.