Winnipeg Jets at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Adam LowryGoals1
- Adam LowryPoints1
Hurricanes- Mark JankowskiGoals2
- Jordan StaalAssists1
- Mark JankowskiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:08Adam Lowry Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: none2–4
- P317:58Seth Jarvis Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (19), Jordan Staal (20)1–4
- P317:14Alex Iafallo Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P32:34Logan Stankoven Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (28), Sebastian Aho (37)0–3
- P25:21Mark Jankowski Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jack Roslovic (11), Eric Robinson (14)0–2
- P118:05Mark Jankowski Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Scott Morrow (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:05Mark Jankowski Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Scott Morrow (1)WPG 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 53% → 69% +17CAR 53% → 69%+17 pts
- P25:21Mark Jankowski Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jack Roslovic (11), Eric Robinson (14)WPG 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 71% → 85% +14CAR 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P32:34Logan Stankoven Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (28), Sebastian Aho (37)WPG 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 92% → 98% +6CAR 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P317:14Alex Iafallo Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: noneWPG 1 – 3 CAR · WPG <1% → <1% +0WPG <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P317:58Seth Jarvis Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (19), Jordan Staal (20)WPG 1 – 4 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 53%
- ML WPG +105 / CAR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 48.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -114
- WPG +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.7 – 2.8 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +4 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +11 Elo | WPG 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 55.9%1st of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%20th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3221–11 | Road vs home | 24–82nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–29 | 27–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 25–23 | 24–34 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 30–34 | 25–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–0 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.