Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals2
- Andrew PeekeAssists2
- Morgan GeekiePoints2
Hurricanes- Brent BurnsGoals1
- Taylor HallAssists1
- Brent BurnsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:41Seth Jarvis Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P31:14Morgan Geekie Goal (22) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (46), Andrew Peeke (14)2–2
- P22:06Brent Burns Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (17), Taylor Hall (17)1–2
- P118:55Morgan Geekie Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (27), Andrew Peeke (13)1–1
- P16:29Sebastian Aho Goal (24) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:29Sebastian Aho Goal (24) Backhand, assists: noneBOS 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 73% → 84% +11CAR 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P118:55Morgan Geekie Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (27), Andrew Peeke (13)BOS 1 – 1 CAR · BOS 16% → 30% +13BOS 16% → 30%+13 pts
- P22:06Brent Burns Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (17), Taylor Hall (17)BOS 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 70% → 83% +14CAR 70% → 83%+14 pts
- P31:14Morgan Geekie Goal (22) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (46), Andrew Peeke (14)BOS 2 – 2 CAR · BOS 16% → 36% +20BOS 16% → 36%+20 pts
- P319:41Seth Jarvis Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: noneBOS 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 52% → >99% +48CAR 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 74%
- ML BOS +270 / CAR -340
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.3%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -286
- BOS +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −2 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +94 Elo | CAR 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 70.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3249.0% | Shot share | 56.2%1st of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%21st of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 26th of 3210–19 | Road vs home | 23–82nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–34 | 27–35 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 10–21 | 24–33 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 31–32 | 25–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–3 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.