Winnipeg Jets at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists2
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints3
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals1
- Ondrej PalatAssists1
- Dawson MercerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:55Cole Perfetti Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (10), Nikolaj Ehlers (35)6–1
- P314:21Kyle Connor Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (37), Gabriel Vilardi (33)5–1
- P311:56Adam Lowry Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P30:31Dawson Mercer Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (14), Ondrej Palat (11)3–1
- P219:30Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (12), Josh Morrissey (41)3–0
- P23:48Josh Morrissey Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (34), Kyle Connor (47)2–0
- P118:17Alex Iafallo Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Colin Miller (9), Logan Stanley (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:17Alex Iafallo Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Colin Miller (9), Logan Stanley (9)WPG 1 – 0 NJ · WPG 53% → 69% +17WPG 53% → 69%+17 pts
- P23:48Josh Morrissey Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (34), Kyle Connor (47)WPG 2 – 0 NJ · WPG 70% → 84% +14WPG 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P219:30Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (12), Josh Morrissey (41)WPG 3 – 0 NJ · WPG 90% → 97% +7WPG 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P30:31Dawson Mercer Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (14), Ondrej Palat (11)WPG 3 – 1 NJ · NJ 2% → 9% +7NJ 2% → 9%+7 pts
- P311:56Adam Lowry Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 4 – 1 NJ · WPG 98% → >99% +2WPG 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 53%
- ML WPG -125 / NJ +105
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- WPG: Elo 49.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -114
- NJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 2.7 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +16 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.41 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +1 Elo | NJ 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.3% | Save percentage | 91.1%3rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3220–11 | Road vs home | 14–1417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–29 | 26–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–23 | 21–32 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 29–34 | 22–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 1–1 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.