Chicago Blackhawks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Wyatt KaiserGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists2
- Ryan DonatoPoints2
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists2
- Conor GarlandPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:58Pius Suter Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (24), Dakota Joshua (4)2–6
- P39:50Nils Aman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (13), Teddy Blueger (14)2–5
- P35:22Wyatt Kaiser Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (1), Ryan Donato (28)2–4
- P34:01Elias Pettersson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (13)1–4
- P218:51Alex Vlasic Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (27), Teuvo Teravainen (37)1–3
- P28:08Conor Garland Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Pius Suter (14), Nils Hoglander (12)0–3
- P118:21Tyler Myers Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (12), Teddy Blueger (13)0–2
- P117:46Quinn Hughes Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (22), Elias Pettersson (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:46Quinn Hughes Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (22), Elias Pettersson (26)CHI 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 68% → 81% +14VAN 68% → 81%+14 pts
- P118:21Tyler Myers Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (12), Teddy Blueger (13)CHI 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 81% → 91% +9VAN 81% → 91%+9 pts
- P28:08Conor Garland Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Pius Suter (14), Nils Hoglander (12)CHI 0 – 3 VAN · VAN 92% → 97% +5VAN 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P218:51Alex Vlasic Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (27), Teuvo Teravainen (37)CHI 1 – 3 VAN · CHI 1% → 6% +4CHI 1% → 6%+4 pts
- P34:01Elias Pettersson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (13)CHI 1 – 4 VAN · VAN 96% → >99% +4VAN 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 71%
- ML CHI +230 / VAN -280
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- VAN: Elo 67.2%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- VAN -243
- CHI +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.1 – 3.4 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −16 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +125 Elo | VAN 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 71.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.020th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.5% | Shot share | 48.8%24th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%26th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 32nd of 327–27 | Road vs home | 13–1929th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–30 | 28–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 35–27 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 35–31 | 30–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–5 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.