Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals1
- Marcus PetterssonAssists1
- Jake DeBruskPoints1
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals2
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists2
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Conor Garland Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Jonathan Huberdeau Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Elias Pettersson Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P313:16Elias Pettersson Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (11), Victor Mancini (5)3–3
- P216:01Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (31), Nazem Kadri (25)2–3
- P213:58Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Rooney (3), MacKenzie Weegar (30)2–2
- P210:32Jake DeBrusk Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (47), Elias Pettersson (25)2–1
- P117:53Nazem Kadri Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (14), Kevin Bahl (14)1–1
- P113:33Pius Suter Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (18), Filip Hronek (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:53Nazem Kadri Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (14), Kevin Bahl (14)VAN 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 38% → 55% +17CGY 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P210:32Jake DeBrusk Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (47), Elias Pettersson (25)VAN 2 – 1 CGY · VAN 46% → 66% +20VAN 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P213:58Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Rooney (3), MacKenzie Weegar (30)VAN 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 33% → 54% +22CGY 33% → 54%+22 pts
- P216:01Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (31), Nazem Kadri (25)VAN 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 54% → 75% +21CGY 54% → 75%+21 pts
- P313:16Elias Pettersson Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (11), Victor Mancini (5)VAN 3 – 3 CGY · VAN 13% → 48% +35VAN 13% → 48%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 56%
- ML VAN +120 / CGY -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- CGY: Elo 58.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CGY -128
- VAN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.6 – 2.9 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +9 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +59 Elo | CGY 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 49.7%17th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%11th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 10th of 3216–16 | Road vs home | 18–1414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–37 | 32–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–22 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 29–35 | 23–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 4–3 CGY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.