St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals3
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints3
Wild- Jake MiddletonGoals1
- Jake MiddletonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:40Jordan Kyrou Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (33), Robert Thomas (37)5–1
- P311:30Jordan Kyrou Goal (26) Wrap-around, assists: Dylan Holloway (28), Justin Faulk (23)4–1
- P212:47Jake Middleton Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P212:22Jordan Kyrou Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Brayden Schenn (27), Cam Fowler (20)3–0
- P210:51Jake Neighbours Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (36), Pavel Buchnevich (32)2–0
- P14:17Brayden Schenn Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Cam Fowler (19), Alexey Toropchenko (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:17Brayden Schenn Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Cam Fowler (19), Alexey Toropchenko (11)STL 1 – 0 MIN · STL 49% → 64% +15STL 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P210:51Jake Neighbours Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (36), Pavel Buchnevich (32)STL 2 – 0 MIN · STL 69% → 85% +15STL 69% → 85%+15 pts
- P212:22Jordan Kyrou Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Brayden Schenn (27), Cam Fowler (20)STL 3 – 0 MIN · STL 85% → 94% +9STL 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P212:47Jake Middleton Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSTL 3 – 1 MIN · MIN 5% → 14% +9MIN 5% → 14%+9 pts
- P311:30Jordan Kyrou Goal (26) Wrap-around, assists: Dylan Holloway (28), Justin Faulk (23)STL 4 – 1 MIN · STL 97% → >99% +2STL 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML STL -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 2.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +5 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +52 Elo | MIN 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 48.1%28th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 91.0%3rd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 13th of 3216–18 | Road vs home | 15–1624th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–29 | 33–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 31–17 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 30–36 | 30–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–4 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.