St. Louis Blues at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Alexey ToropchenkoGoals1
- Ryan SuterAssists1
- Alexey ToropchenkoPoints1
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Blake LizotteAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:52Rickard Rakell Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (49), Bryan Rust (27)3–5
- P38:56Alexey Toropchenko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (12)3–4
- P37:15Bryan Rust Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Rickard Rakell (28), Sidney Crosby (48)2–4
- P31:26Dylan Holloway Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (22), Jake Neighbours (17)2–3
- P217:42Connor Dewar Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Blake Lizotte (7), Erik Karlsson (39)1–3
- P211:35Zack Bolduc Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (35), Pavel Buchnevich (31)1–2
- P22:20Conor Timmins Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (16), Philip Tomasino (9)0–2
- P12:17Ryan Graves Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:35Zack Bolduc Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (35), Pavel Buchnevich (31)STL 1 – 2 PIT · STL 16% → 32% +16STL 16% → 32%+16 pts
- P217:42Connor Dewar Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Blake Lizotte (7), Erik Karlsson (39)STL 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 71% → 87% +17PIT 71% → 87%+17 pts
- P31:26Dylan Holloway Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (22), Jake Neighbours (17)STL 2 – 3 PIT · STL 10% → 27% +17STL 10% → 27%+17 pts
- P37:15Bryan Rust Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Rickard Rakell (28), Sidney Crosby (48)STL 2 – 4 PIT · PIT 77% → 94% +16PIT 77% → 94%+16 pts
- P38:56Alexey Toropchenko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (12)STL 3 – 4 PIT · STL 5% → 21% +16STL 5% → 21%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML STL -125 / PIT +105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- STL: Elo 51.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.8 – 2.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +12 Elo | STL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 48.6%27th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 12th of 3216–17 | Road vs home | 15–1826th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–28 | 33–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 31–17 | 29–24 |
| Overs–unders | 29–36 | 34–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.