Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Pavel DorofeyevAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints2
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:49Erik Karlsson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (30), Kris Letang (18)2–3
- P319:53Noah Hanifin Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (40), Pavel Dorofeyev (16)2–2
- P214:29Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (23), Jack Eichel (58)1–2
- P23:02Sidney Crosby Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (27)0–2
- P117:48Sidney Crosby Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Rickard Rakell (26), Kevin Hayes (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:48Sidney Crosby Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Rickard Rakell (26), Kevin Hayes (9)VGK 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 39% → 56% +17PIT 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P23:02Sidney Crosby Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (27)VGK 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 58% → 75% +17PIT 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P214:29Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (23), Jack Eichel (58)VGK 1 – 2 PIT · VGK 18% → 37% +18VGK 18% → 37%+18 pts
- P319:53Noah Hanifin Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (40), Pavel Dorofeyev (16)VGK 2 – 2 PIT · VGK 0% → 51% +51VGK 0% → 51%+51 pts
- OT0:49Erik Karlsson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (30), Kris Letang (18)VGK 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 47% → 90% +44PIT 47% → 90%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 63%
- ML VGK -190 / PIT +160
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 56.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- VGK -170
- PIT +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | 0 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +48 Elo | VGK 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.6% | Shot share | 48.8%24th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.9%31st of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 14th of 3214–15 | Road vs home | 14–1827th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–27 | 32–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–25 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 28–24 |
| Overs–unders | 30–33 | 34–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.